GB ErosionScore: The future of coastal risk intelligence

As coastal erosion accelerates across the UK, the risks to communities, infrastructure, and the economy are growing. Advances in data and mapping technology are now enabling clearer, more proactive understanding of where and when these impacts may occur.

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coastal erosion of the cliffs at Skipsea, Yorkshire

DavidMartin

As Product Director at Haskoning, David drives the strategy behind Twinn’s physical risk solutions, integrating geospatial analytics, catastrophe modelling, and scalable cloud-based platforms. Collaborating with engineers, developers, and domain experts, Twinn delivers high-quality risk data and tools that help organisations across sectors enhance resilience, inform investment decisions, and meet regulatory goals.

Why coastal erosion demands urgent attention

Climate change is reshaping the UK’s coastal landscape, and the implications for the financial sector are becoming increasingly clear. According to the Environment Agency, sea levels around the UK could rise by over 1 metre by 2080, with up to 2 metres not ruled out. This rise, combined with more frequent and intense storm events, is expected to significantly increase both coastal flooding and erosion.

The Holderness Coast, for example, is already experiencing erosion rates of up to 2 metres per year, making it one of the fastest-eroding coastlines in Europe. Other vulnerable regions include South Wales, Northwest Scotland, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, East Anglia, and the Thames Estuary (source: Coastal erosion and climate change – Environment Agency).

The Environment Agency’s 2024 National Assessment of Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk shows that the number of properties in England at risk from flooding and erosion could rise to 8 million by mid-century, meaning 1 in 4 properties may be exposed to these hazards. Without new defences, over £584 million worth of residential property in England could be lost to erosion by 2100.

The role of coastal defences—and the uncertainty ahead

Crucially, the risk to individual properties is not uniform—it strongly depends on the presence and maintenance of coastal sea defences. These defences are guided by Shoreline Management Plans (SMPs), which outline whether a stretch of coast will be protected, allowed to erode naturally, or managed in other ways. However, SMPs are non-statutory, and their implementation hinges on the availability of funding and political will.

This means that even where SMPs propose continued protection, there is no guarantee that defences will be built or maintained. As funding pressures mount and climate impacts accelerate, the gap between policy and implementation could widen—leaving properties more vulnerable than official plans suggest.

This uncertainty presents a material risk to the financial sector. As properties become increasingly exposed to flooding and erosion, insurers face rising claims, and mortgage lenders risk holding devalued or uninsurable assets. The result is a systemic challenge to property markets and long-term financial stability.

As sea levels rise and extreme coastal events—once considered rare—are projected to become annual occurrences by 2100, the need for forward-looking, data-driven planning becomes increasingly important. Coastal erosion is emerging as a material risk factor. While the pace and impact will vary by region, the need for forward-looking, data-driven planning is becoming increasingly important. Institutions that proactively assess and manage this risk will be better positioned to protect assets, maintain portfolio resilience, and meet emerging regulatory expectations.

The risk to properties and towns strongly depends on the management of the coastal defenses—the status of which will vary over time. This data incorporates the shoreline policy today and the current plans for future implementation.

In response to this growing need, we’re proud to introduce GB ErosionScore 2.0—a major upgrade to our UK RiskScore suite. This next-generation tool transforms how we assess, visualise, and respond to coastal erosion risk across Great Britain.

What is GB ErosionScore?

GB ErosionScore is a property-level, map-based erosion risk model that integrates the latest data from the Environment Agency (NCERM2, NaFRA2), SEPA, NCCA, and Ordnance Survey. It replaces our previous tabular product with a powerful, visual, and climate-aware solution—enabling more precise risk assessments, improved decision-making, and enhanced portfolio resilience in the face of a changing coastline.

Key Features of GB ErosionScore

Why it matters for business

Coastal erosion is not just an environmental issue — it’s a financial one. GB ErosionScore empowers:

Lender to assess long-term property viability and collateral risk.
Insurers to price policies accurately and manage exposure.
Planners and consultants to support adaptation strategies and regulatory compliance.
Investors and asset managers to meet regulatory disclosure requirements and demonstrate climate resilience.

Hemsby, Norfolk houses in danger from coastal erosion

houses near cliffside at risk of coastal erosion

Five financial benefits of Twinn hazard data:

Strategic site selection reduces exposure and balance sheet risk.
Risk-based pricing for loans and insurance.
Adaptation planning to reduce business interruption.
Premium negotiation through demonstrated resilience.
Improved capital access by showing low exposure.

Ready to explore GB ErosionScore?

Whether you're assessing risk, planning, or managing assets in a changing climate, GB ErosionScore provides the clarity and confidence needed to make informed decisions. From financial institutions and insurers to infrastructure planners and environmental consultants, this tool is designed to support any organisation that needs to understand and manage the evolving risks of coastal erosion.

Get in touch today to learn more or request a demo — and see how GB ErosionScore can help you stay ahead of coastal change.