Creating low CAPEX and resilient CO2 supply chains 

The storage of carbon in natural geological structures like depleted oil and gas wells is a cost, as carbon storage does not generate revenue but is a service paid for by taxes or fees, and there is significant incentive to reduce the overall CAPEX of the supply chain.

According to the International Energy Agency, the developing carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) market is taking a ‘part-chain’ approach, where individual projects focus on either on capture or transport and storage or sequestration. Although this can reduce commercial risks and promote efficiencies, it relies on close coordination and alignment across the value chain. And that raises big questions about infrastructure, operating models and commercial risk and reward.

Predictive simulation plays a key role in answering those questions, as we’ll see in this blog.

Why use predictive simulation for rightsizing CCUS?

Developers often try to use spreadsheets and static models to answer business questions that are intertwined such as:

• What should be the liquefaction terminal capacity?
• What is the right LCO2 storage volume at the terminal?
• How many jetties are required?
• What fleet configurations works best?
• What flexibilities do I need in the commercial contract to reduce CAPEX?
• Will my supply chain work in the event of disruptions liked unexpected maintenance and uncertainties like weather?

Decisions like the above have a knock-on effect with implications for the overall supply chain CAPEX, its operational flexibility and carries both risks and opportunities.

Predictive simulation picks up where spreadsheets and static modelling leave off. Our Witness Logistics Simulator lets users build dynamic models of processes and operations that accurately represent the behaviour of the supply chain. You can therefore analyse several alternative configurations and ‘what-if’ scenarios where testing in real life would be impractical, making the simulator an invaluable tool in the decision-making process.

Optimising infrastructure of a large CO2 export terminal 

One of the first commercial CO2 liquefaction export and storage terminal in the world has answered these questions by using simulation modelling. Together with Haskoning, they have built a business case that minimized the overall terminal, storage and fleet investment and built a configuration with sufficient resilience.

To verify the logistical performance of the export terminal, the simulation model considered the system boundaries, data availability, design, commercial and operational constraints, and “real world” uncertainties that are relevant at the analysis stage. 

 Rightsizing the terminal and managing uncertainties

The rightsizing of the terminal is a challenge as it involves picking optimal liquefaction capacity, storage volumes, berths, and fleet size and configuration. The chosen configuration had to have sufficient resilience to respond to disruptions, random events and uncertainties like impact of tides and weather on berth availability and channel access, planned and unplanned maintenance at the terminal and channel access limitations due to traffic, daylight restrictions, etc. The simulations and the powerful data visualization helped generate insight among the various stakeholders within the organization – marine, commercial, operations and terminal operators and acted as an engagement tool and helped the operator make judgement calls balancing the risks and opportunities.

Interested in reducing your CAPEX for CO2 terminals?

Let’s discuss how predictive simulation can help – including providing a robust evidence base for decision-making.