Simulating Scotland's offshore wind supply chain strategy

With the second biggest installed capacity in the world, offshore wind is one of the UK’s biggest success stories. In 2024, 41% of European offshore wind capacity was hosted within UK waters and it generated 49.2TWh, the equivalent of the electricity needs of 52% of UK households. In the process, it saved 19.1m tonnes of CO2.

The sector has big plans to build on this success, and it will play a vital role in the UK’s transition to net zero. In Scotland alone, there are plans to deliver up to 40GW of offshore wind by 2035-2040, in addition to existing capacity.

The challenge

Gaining the strategic insights required to build offshore wind infrastructure at pace and scale

While there is no lack of ambition for the offshore wind sector, its rapid expansion, particularly in the complex floating sector, is happening in a ‘low information environment’ with limited precedent to guide development. Additionally, traditional logistics planning methods struggle to account for critical variables like unpredictable weather and global supply chain disruptions.

Logistics and materials management company, ASCO wanted to identify the supply chain challenges and gain actionable insights to enable successful offshore wind deployments, despite the complexities. In doing so, it could provide a roadmap that would enable data-driven decision- making and help wind developers and investors make informed decisions.

Thuy-Tien LeGuenDang, Head of New Energy & Net Zero at ASCO, explained: ‘Given the scale and complexity of the logistics, we needed to know if the dynamics worked across the Scottish offshore wind ecosystem. Could construction projects be completed simultaneously? What’s the best way to use ports to maximise resilience? What constraints and bottlenecks would affect throughput and efficiency?’

These questions required powerful simulation modelling capabilities, so ASCO turned to Haskoning for help. Thuy-Tien said: ‘We needed a company that offered both maritime expertise and powerful simulation modelling capabilities. Haskoning gave us the best of both.’

For Steve Jones, Leading Professional for Simulation at Haskoning, the project was particularly important because of its synergy with the company’s mission of Enhancing Society Together. He commented: ‘We want to focus our efforts in areas where we can make the biggest difference in delivering benefits for people and planet. This project stood out as a powerful opportunity to apply our expertise in a way that directly supports Scotland’s clean energy future.’

The solution

Domain and simulation expertise to identify challenges related to port infrastructure, onshore logistics and manufacturing

The project involved a partnership between the offshore wind, maritime and ports, and simulation teams at Haskoning, as well as experts at ASCO and Scottish Enterprise.

Central to the project were the capabilities of Haskoning’s Witness simulation modelling software alongside its domain expertise. The team drew on real-world data, developer input and the wealth of sector expertise available within the partnership to build a dynamic, end-to-end model. Across four wind construction projects, it tracked millions of data points, including individual vessel movements and logistical events, across a simulated timeline from 2028 to 2038.

The granularity of data in the model allowed the team to test ‘what-if’ scenarios and evaluate the resilience and efficiency of various port strategies under real-world constraints such as:

• Port infrastructure and capacity
• Floating substructure manufacturing and wet storage
• Vessel routing and weather impacts
• Integration and installation timelines

The result

Clear, actionable insights for optimising offshore wind deployment

The model is the first of its kind to map multiple offshore wind construction projects at this level of detail and scale. It revealed critical bottlenecks but also offered clear, actionable insights that are influencing strategic planning for offshore wind deployment. These included:

• Port strategy viability: Importantly, the simulation showed that more port infrastructure could be used than previously thought. Even within the limitations, projects could be completed. Interestingly, a Super Port strategy risked creating significant bottlenecks if it didn’t have enough berthing capacity.
• Wet storage constraints: The simulation identified this as a critical bottleneck in the logistics chain. There was limited availability of wet storage for the massive floating turbine units, which are comparable in size to a football pitch.
• Collaboration is crucial: A central message from the project was the critical need for collaboration across the offshore wind industry in Scotland, including developers, ports and logistics providers. Without coordinated effort, limited port capacity and resources could lead to significant, costly delays and unfulfilled targets.

Unlike traditional planning tools, the simulation provides a living, adaptable framework that can evolve with new data, technologies and market conditions. It enables stakeholders to make informed decisions in a high-risk, low-information environment, something that has hindered offshore wind development to date. As Thuy-Tien explained: ‘The model goes beyond logistics to give us robust answers to the real-world questions that businesses and governments are asking. Importantly, everything is fully explainable from first principles to results, so stakeholders have an evidence base for ongoing decision-making.’