Marine operations simulation modelling to support investment decision

A complex expansion needing careful planning

After the success of its first plant, Cory wanted to build a second site to provide much-needed waste processing capacity for London and the South East and generate electricity for the equivalent of 140,000 homes. One consequence of this would be the doubling of the amount of waste material transported along the Thames, significantly increasing the number of barge and tug movements – and potentially creating congestion.

Moreover, barge transits along the river are operationally complex, with each movement dependent on tidal times and high water access to transfer stations, waste receival timetables from the city, barge loading and transit times, weather, and supply chain fluctuations for this global city.

To understand capacity at multiple sites, and whether the river-based resources, plans, equipment, and assets were appropriately estimated, Cory needed to conduct a quantitative study, helping the company support its investment decision in river-based services to support the new plant.

Securing success with in-depth modelling

Continuing our longstanding relationship with Cory, Haskoning used discrete event simulation tools to create a model of the river’s supply chain. This included simulating stress tests on the material flow and assets to validate the network’s capacity and resilience based on the predicted future increase.

We studied the barge service processes, assets, routines, and variables along the river, ranging from tug and barge scheduling based on different tidal flow cycles to the impacts of fog and equipment maintenance.

Our in-house engineers then used a simulation platform to convert this data into a mathematical structure to replicate predicted supply chain flow in a simulation model.

This model was matched with a series of stress scenarios (or discreet events), including bad weather stoppages and equipment maintenance events, to understand system flexibility and recovery capability. This process also helped flag any supply chain elements needing modification prior to the new plant coming online.

Stopping waste entering landfill while powering 140,000 homes

Providing a clear understanding of probable operating conditions, the results of the simulation study showed Cory’s new waste flow development plans on the river would be resilient enough to support additional barge traffic travelling to the plant, including an increase in waste ash for onward recycling down river.

The results of the simulation were included in Cory’s stakeholder investment information pack, providing funding and risk analysis for the new project.

Once built, the new Riverside 2 EfW facility will handle an additional 650,000 tonnes of London’s non-recyclable waste each year, reducing the need for landfill and generating low carbon baseload electricity for the UK’s national grid.