Macro-economic report gives insight into trade corridor investment

The challenge

Increasing trade volumes prompt decision over border post upgrade

The Chirundu border post is on an important trade corridor linking mining activity in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) with the port of Beira in Mozambique. During peak periods, queues to cross between Zambia and Zimbabwe can extend for up to 35km and take several days to pass. Border traffic has grown steadily as demand for the copper and cobalt mined in DRC increases to meet global requirements for green energy equipment such as batteries and solar panels. The trade corridor also carries coal, agricultural products, and people. Customs charges provide an important source of revenue for the two countries which benefit from growth in trade volumes through Chirundu. An investment consortium contracted Haskoning Supply Chain and Logistics team to provide a macro-economic report which would inform the investment decision on upgrading the border post. 

The solution

Macro-economic modelling combines data sources with supply chain insight 

Our team brought together experts in cross-border supply chain analysis with business case consultants to provide a detailed assessment of future trade volumes and traffic forecasts. It was important to plot competing trade corridors to ports across Africa and explore any plans for investment along these routes. We analysed the existing situation at Chirundu and talked to stakeholders. These included commercial partners, government representatives, and market analysts to understand growth in supply and demand, logistics patterns, and infrastructure development across the continent. Data sources provided in-depth figures on markets and populations. Correlations with potential traffic growth were identified and validated.

The result

Report provides forecasts across various scenarios 

The strength of the final report lay in its comprehensive analysis of the elements that impact the growth of traffic through the border post. It drew on our team’s expertise in trade corridor masterplans, market demand patterns, and cross-border supply chains. This knowledge and insight was paired with in-house mathematical forecasting expertise to aggregate and analyse the data to forecast multiple years effects and trends. Scenarios discussed and agreed with our client helped to give insight around potential deviation on the forecast.